Farmers around the lake clear their drainage ditches with fire in late winter to spring. This frequently ignites large reedbed fires, especially if there is wind and a dry winter season.
What will happen over the next decades if wetland fire risk is not addressed? Waterbirds nest and breed in the reedbeds around the Prespa Lakes in spring. Wetland fires often burn large swathes of wetland, destroying nests and eggs, especially when winters are dry.
How does this affect protected bird-populations, especially as some were already decimated by the bird flu? During 2025 this pier was four meters above the water level of Great Prespa Lake. Since July 2013, the lake has fallen by three meters as precipitation declined and evaporation increased.
Will this water level fall continue? Rain- and snowfall declined in the Prespa region over the past four decades, while evaporation increased. Waterflow in rivers supplying the lakes declined at the same time.
What holds the future? The 1960s shoreline is clearly visible in this limestone cliff-face. The dramatic fall in lake level since the 1960s, of up to ten meters, is driven by climate change.
Will lake volume decline even further? A dry pier on the 1960s shoreline at the southern end of Great Prespa Lake. Here, the shore retreated by 250 meters as water level fell by up to 10 meters. Shorelines at the northern part of the lake retreated by up to 1km.
Why does the wider lakeshore need protection under falling lake levels? Bean (mono-)cultivation in Greek Prespa. Beans form the cash crop that drives the local agricultural economy. Growth conditions for beans will be less favorable under future climate change.
What can be done to have a thriving agricultural sector in the future? Summer hailstorms destroy crops locally. Extreme events may increase under future climate change.
Which climate threats are expected to become more severe in the future? Climate Change in Prespa:
Threats to Man & Nature
In the case of fire, please contact immediately: the Hellenic Fire Service and the Management Unit. Hellenic Fire Service: 199, Management Unit of Prespa National Park and Protected Areas of Western Macedonia: +30 2385051870, Municipality of Prespa: +30 2385351300.

Water Level of
Lesser Prespa Lake

Fire

Wetland fire risk (Jun-Sep): Medium
Forest fire risk (Jun-Sep): High

Photosynthetic intensity

NDVI is a measure of the intensity at which vegetation and phytoplankton photosynthesize on the surface of the lakes based on how they reflect light at certain wavelengths.

Water Level of
Great Prespa Lake

Weather

METEOBLUE Local Weather Forecast and Extreme Weather Warnings for the Prespa Region

water density_icon (1)

Vegetation Moisture

NDMI (Normalized Difference Moisture Index) is used to determine the water content of vegetation and to monitor drought conditions.

Clima Prespa

The remarkable environment and wildlife of Prespa, together with its cultural heritage, create a world where people and nature thrive together.

The transboundary Prespa basin, centered around the Prespa Lakes—shared by Greece, Albania, and North Macedonia—is a unique hotspot for global biodiversity and a place of exceptional natural beauty.

People and nature in Prespa are jointly threatened by the impacts of climate change. Since the 1970s, the region’s climate has changed, leading to a dramatic reduction in the volume and level of the lake waters, while also intensifying eutrophication.

The climate of Prespa is changing, and along with it, extreme phenomena are appearing, such as water scarcity, prolonged drought, and also heavy rainfall events, often outside the expected season. Thus, while in 2025 we recorded the 6th consecutive year of intense drought, from November of the same year the heavy rains caused flooding and a rise in the water level of both Mikri and Megali Prespa.

Climate change is depleting water resources and accelerating their degradation, increasing the risk of forest and wetland fires, negatively affecting agricultural production, and threatening Prespa’s rich biodiversity, including globally significant waterbirds and endemic lake species.

Adapting to the challenges of climate change is of vital importance. And adaptation means changing not only our social perceptions but also our everyday habits.

How does climate change affect water resources in Prespa?

(Video in Greek) “Prespa’s Green and Blue LifeLines” benefits from the support of the Donors Initiative for Mediterranean Freshwater Ecosystems (DIMFE) and the Prespa Ohrid Nature Trust (PONT), and is being implemented by the Society for the Protection of Prespa.

What’s going on with the wildfires in Prespa?

(Video in Greek) “Prespa’s Green and Blue LifeLines” benefits from the support of the Donors Initiative for Mediterranean Freshwater Ecosystems (DIMFE) and the Prespa Ohrid Nature Trust (PONT), and is being implemented by the Society for the Protection of Prespa.

European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) Seasonal weather forecasts, up to 7 months ahead, for Europe.

Major climate-influenced natural risks in Prespa:

WETLAND FIRES

Large wetland fires around the Prespa Lakes occur regularly from February until the end of May; these fires are exclusively man-made. Farmers often use fire to clear fields & drainage ditches. These fires may spread to the wetlands, especially under high wind conditions.

Fields surrounding the wetlands are heavily cultivated from late spring onwards, and fire-ignition is actively suppressed. Few wetland fires are recorded over summer, even if weather conditions are highly favorable for wildfires during this period.

Wet season precipitation influences the size of wetland fires. Cumulative Oct-Mar precipitation of less than 500mm is linked to large reedbed fires. Total precipitation from October to January (4 months) of less than 350mm is also linked to large wetland fires.

Future years with high wetland fire risk (wet season precipitation of less than 500 mm) will increase by about 15% according to climate change projections.

See relevant photos here.

FOREST FIRES

For next day fire risk, over the fire season (June-September), see the map of next day fire danger in Greece.

Forest wildfires in the Prespa region occur mainly from June until the end of September (the fire season). These wildfires are related to days with “very extreme” fire danger, defined as a Fire Weather Index (FWI) of FWI >70, that are associated with drought / heatwave and low relative humidity conditions. The western and southern part of the Prespa catchment have thin soils on well-draining limestone, that dry out rapidly during summer heatwaves. Vegetation here is more susceptible to large fires.

When there are multiple sequences of consecutive days with FWI>70 over the fire season, forest wildfire risk is severe, based on the potential fire size and the ecological impact on rare forest habitats. “Very extreme” fire danger days occur historically from June to September. Over the historical period, there were ~3 very extreme fire danger days (FWI>70) per year, on average, in Prespa.

For a fire danger forecast up to 9 days ahead, see the COPERNICUS emergency management service.

Days with FWI values of >70 over the fire season are projected to increase in the future (2041-2070) between 40% and 109%. Forest wildfire risk will therefore also increase in the future, given the strong link between days with FWI > 70 and large forest wildfires.

Projections assume that fire-ignition frequencies & causes remain stable in the future. However, increasing road-access to forests and the construction of windfarms and solar energy parks strongly increases the fire risk due to negligence or related to the power-grid infrastructure. This risk increase cannot be quantified at present, but any developments should be closely monitored.

LAKE LEVEL CHANGE

When wet season (October to March) precipitation at lake level is below 390mm (i.e., wet season drought in Prespa), there is a subdued seasonal rise (<20cm) in lake level (from late winter to spring). Peak lake levels are reached early, in March-April for Lesser Prespa Lake and around May for Great Prespa Lake.

Impacts of wet-season droughts:

  • Increase in water abstraction for irrigation and urban use;
  • Less / no flooding of wet meadows (inland of the reedbeds fringing the lakes), leading to decreased fish spawning & less food availability for water birds;
  • Nesting sites in reedbeds are more prone to wetland fires;

Future wet season drought risk (wet season precipitation of less than 390mm) is increasing by about 15% in the Prespa region under future climate scenarios.

The falling lake level trend is also influenced by evaporation and snowfall changes. Future annual lake evaporation is also projected to increase significantly: by 2070 there may be 60mm to 100mm extra evaporation. The annual number of days with a snow depth of >30cm is decreasing across all altitudes in the future, leading to much less snowmelt induced runoff.

BEAN HARVEST

Risk of poor 2026 bean harvest: MODERATE.

Why: weather forecasts for the next months ahead (untill August) show normal precipitation but higher than average temperatures. This will affect the seed and blossoming stages likely negatively.

The key cash-crop in the Greek part of the Prespa Region are beans. These are very important for the local economy, which only relies secondarily on tourism. A good harvest is closely linked to the following key climatic variables:

[1] Seed stage: How many days between 15/4 and 15/5 have an average temperature >16oC? Days with temperatures exceeding this range are harmful for seed germination. At present, there is no temperature exceedance. 

[2] Growth & blossoming stage: How many days between 15/5 and 30/8 have a maximum temperature >21oC and <26oC? Days with temperatures within this range are good for plant development. At present, there is an average of 40 optimal days.

The risk of bean harvest failure will increase in the future, as growth conditions for the present bean species will deteriorate

Days (between 15/4 and 15/5) that are harmful for seed germination, with average temperatures exceeding 16oC, have a future frequency ranging from 1 to 3 days. At present such days are very rare.

Days (between 15/5 and 30/8) with maximum temperatures >21oC and <26oC that are good for plant development will fall from an average of 40 (present), to 30 or 20 days in the future.

van der Schriek, T., Giannakopoulos, C. & Varotsos, K.V. The impact of future climate change on bean cultivation in the Prespa Lake catchment, northern Greece. Euro-Mediterr J Environ Integr 5, 14 (2020).